...A Sligiht Chance for Rain Early Next Week. Otherwise, the Dry Pattern Continues...
After a long period of dry and pleasant weather, some small changes are on the horizon. Warmer and more humid weather will return tonight and this weekend. And a few showers, yes, rain showers, will be possible beginning Monday afternoon, continuing into early Wednesday. The system responsible for this chance for rain looks to stay just north of our region so I'm not too excited about any significant rain. Dry and mild weather will follow late Wednesday into next weekend. Another large trough of low pressure moving into the western US late next week looks to cause another slight chance for rain locally sometime next Sunday or Monday, but this system may once again miss our region, turning more to the north. The overall weather pattern across the nation is becoming more progressive, but atmospheric conditions over Central and South Texas haven't come together yet to produce significant rains.
Weather conditions remain dry and quiet across the region this afternoon. The large dome of Canadian high pressure responsible for the low humidity levels and cool morning temperatures all this week has shifted east to the Mississippi Valley region. In response, southerly surface winds have returned bringing slightly higher humidity readings. This is evident in the surface dewpoint temperatures which have risen to the low and middle 60s near the coast. The sky will stay mostly clear tonight but temperatures will be warmer. Low temperatures Saturday morning will generally be in the low and middle 60s. Weather conditions will be sunny and somewhat breezy on Saturday as southerly winds increase to around 10 to 20 mph. High temperatures will be near 90-93 degrees. Lows Sunday morning will be in the mid and upper 60s. Sunday's weather will feature partly cloudy and breezy conditions. Look for southerly winds to increase to a range of 15 to 25 mph. It will be warm with a high temperature near 90-92 degrees. Clouds will increase Sunday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the western Hill Country Sunday evening. Lows Monday morning will generally be near 70 degrees.
This change to a more humid and more unsettled pattern is being driven by a large trough of low pressure currently moving inland along the West Coast. The trough looks will track across the Rockies this weekend, reaching as far south as the Desert Southwest late Sunday. The trough will turn northeast to the Plains states Monday, with a small piece of the trough holding back across the Texas Panhandle/southern plains region on Tuesday. The entire trough complex looks to push east of Texas next Wednesday, followed by a stable ridge of high pressure next Wednesday afternoon through Friday.
For our region, the approaching trough of low pressure will cause a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms between Monday afternoon and Wednesday morning. During this period, the most favorable area for rain looks to develop across the western Hill Country, near the West Texas Dry Line and near the coast, in a zone of increased moisture. Here, the chance for rain will near 40 percent. Elsewhere, the chance for rain at any given location will run between 20 and 30 percent through the period. Unfortunately, with most of the atmospheric dynamics staying north of our region with the main trough, I don't expect much quantity of rain. Rain totals over the period will generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. I wouldn't be surprised if some spots may miss the rain entirely and stay dry. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be near 88-90 degrees.
The chance for rain looks to diminish early Wednesday as the small trough to our north shifts to the east while high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere builds east across Texas out of Mexico. The weather will be mostly sunny next Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures will be mostly in the middle 80s. Lows will range from the low and middle 50s across the Hill Country to the low and middle 60s near the coast. A dry and sunny pattern looks to hold into next week as high pressure remains in place over Texas. However, today's forecast solutions indicate another large trough of low pressure will move inland along the West Coast next weekend, with the trough tracking southeast to the Desert Southwest around next Monday. This next trough may bring our region a slight chance for rain during the early part of the following week, but I wouldn't bet on it at this time. This trough may also turn northeast, mostly missing our region. We might see some noticeably cooler air once this trough pushes off to the northeast.
Barometer Bush Forecasting Rain? This is not scientific forecasting but I happened to notice most Texas Sage bushes in the Austin area have been blooming over the past few days. Legend has it when these bushes bloom, it typically rains sometime in the next week to ten day period. My observations have been these bloom periods preceding rain events are fairly accurate but not perfect by any means. There was an extremely heavy bloom around Labor Day weekend this year but our region received little to no rain. This bloom preceded Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall in Louisiana. Oops, maybe it was wishful thinking from our native Texas sage. I guess no one has a perfect forecast.
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...No thunderstorms are forecast.
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...No rain is forecast.
SPECIAL LCRA OPERATIONAL STATEMENTS...None. Rains in late August eased the fire danger at many locations. However, with such dry condition in September, drought conditions are growing worse. Burn bans are in effect for the following counties: Austin, Bell, Burnet, Caldwell, Fayette, Guadalupe, Kimble, Lee, Lampasas, Llano, Menard, San Saba, Travis, Washington, and Williamson Counties. A complete listing of burn bans can be found at: http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.png
LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES OF: BROWN, COMANCHE, MILLS, SAN SABA, COLEMAN, AND LAMPASAS ..Including the cities of Brownwood, Comanche, Goldthwaite, San Saba, Coleman and Lampasas..
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 10 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SUNNY...BREEZY. HIGHS AROUND 90. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER. LOWS 56 TO 62. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS 58 TO 64. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 50 TO 56. HIGHS 82 TO 88. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Oct. 09 - Oct. 13 Near Normal Temperatures. Near Normal Precipitation. ==============================================================================================================================
LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES OF: BLANCO, LLANO, BURNET, GILLESPIE, KENDALL, KERR, AND MASON ..Including the cities of Johnson City, Llano, Burnet, Fredericksburg, Boerne, Kerrville and Mason..
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING. A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 62 TO 67. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 50 TO 60. HIGHS 83 TO 88. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Oct. 09 - Oct. 13 Near Normal Temperatures. Near Normal Precipitation.
LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES OF: BASTROP, CALDWELL, FAYETTE, HAYS, LEE, TRAVIS, AND WILLIAMSON ..Including Metro Austin, Bastrop, Lockhart, San Marcos, Giddings, and Georgetown...
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN CLEARING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 70. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 90. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 56 TO 62. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Oct. 09 - Oct. 13 Near Normal Temperatures. Near Normal Precipitation. ==========================================================================================================================================
LCRA FORECAST FOR THE IRRIGATION DISTRICTS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF:
COLORADO, MATAGORDA AND WHARTON ..Including the cities of Columbus, Bay City and Wharton..
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 90. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL LATE NIGHT THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Oct. 09 - Oct. 13 Above Normal Temperatures. Above Normal Precipitation.
