Central and South Texas was warm and dry during 2006, as a drought that began the previous year grew worse, with widespread rainfall deficits by late fall of 9 to 12 inches and one of the warmest summers on record.
But there was light at the end of the tunnel. A strengthening El Niño was supposed to end the drought and bring widespread, drenching rains in fall and winter, as did earlier El Niños in 1991, 1997 and 2004.
This El Niño has been different. Only limited rains fell during autumn, and November was unusually dry. Rains finally returned in late December, but most of them missed the Hill Country. Weather conditions in autumn resembled that of a La Niña, which typically results in dry weather across the southern U.S.
This has left many climate experts wondering what type of weather will occur this winter.
This El Niño system not like recent ones
The current El Niño may be different from earlier ones. This year’s El Niño features unusually warm water mainly in the central Pacific Ocean, with slightly cooler waters off the coast of South America. This has resulted in unusual weather across parts of the United States.
Also, the current El Niño developed late in summer, an uncommon time for its development. As a result, the atmosphere didn’t have sufficient time to enhance fall rains over Texas.
Long-range forecasts indicate a moderate El Niño will continue through winter, then weaken this spring into early summer. Its influence should increase this winter, bringing wetter and colder weather to Central Texas.
Previous winters with late-starting El Niños ended with near normal rainfall but no heavy or prolonged periods of rain. Most of the winters also had cold temperatures, especially during January and February.
Expect a colder winter in 2007
Using history and science as a guide, I expect temperatures to average slightly below normal through March, with two or three strong cold outbreaks. There will be some mild periods, but the cold will win out. Conditions should also trend wetter, with Pacific storm systems becoming more frequent.
While our region should see more frequent rains, the pattern doesn’t look to be extremely wet, and rainfall should average near to just slightly above normal. The soaking rains probably won’t be a drought breaker, but they will help ease drought conditions.
With the forecast for colder than normal temperatures and near-normal rainfall, there will be an increased threat for periods of ice and maybe even a little snow, although I wouldn’t expect more than a light dusting.
This will feel more like a true winter than the past couple of years, with colder temperatures and more frequent periods of clouds and rain. We may also see some surprises, especially with this oddball El Niño driving the pattern.
Bob Rose is chief meteorologist at LCRA. E-mail him at bob.rose@lcra.org.
Bob Rose visits Lake Travis and discusses the near-term weather forecast
